MBModelBall

Algeria vs Austria

World Cup · Sunday, June 28, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 6 days

MODEL CONSENSUS

0
pick Algeria
0
pick Draw
4
pick Austria

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Austria 39%
Algeria31%
Draw30%
Austria39%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Algeria31%
Draw30%
Austria39%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Algeria31%
Draw30%
Austria39%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Algeria30%
Draw30%
Austria40%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Algeria29%
Draw30%
Austria41%

Grok 3Most divergent

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Algeria34%
Draw30%
Austria36%

Predicted scoreline

0-1
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.0%
0-0
9.9%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-1Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-1GPT-5.4 0-1Grok 3 0-1

Goal expectancy 2.45 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Algeria listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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