MBModelBall

Jordan vs Argentina

World Cup · Sunday, June 28, 2026

2:00 AM UTC

Kickoff in 6 days

MODEL CONSENSUS

0
pick Jordan
0
pick Draw
4
pick Argentina

All Six Predictions

The Edge ★

Fingerprint-weighted ensemble

Favored outcome
Argentina 82%
Jordan6%
Draw13%
Argentina82%

Model Weights

Grok 3: 25%GPT-5.4: 25%Claude Sonnet 4.6: 25%Gemini 3.1 Pro: 25%

Naive Average

Equal-weight baseline

Jordan6%
Draw13%
Argentina82%

INDIVIDUAL MODELS

GPT-5.4

The Market Baseline

Fingerprint →
Jordan5%
Draw12%
Argentina83%

Claude Sonnet 4.6

The Analyst

Fingerprint →
Jordan5%
Draw12%
Argentina83%

Grok 3Most divergent

The Contrarian

Fingerprint →
Jordan7%
Draw14%
Argentina79%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

The Generalist

Fingerprint →
Jordan5%
Draw12%
Argentina83%

Predicted scoreline

0-2
0-2
15.2%
0-3
13.2%
0-1
11.0%
0-4
8.6%
1-2
7.6%
Each model's scoreline pick
Claude Sonnet 4.6 0-2Gemini 3.1 Pro 0-2GPT-5.4 0-2Grok 3 0-2

Goal expectancy 3.11 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Jordan listed first.

Ensemble Logic

Standard Context

No special conditions detected

Weights:

Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%

Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted

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