Turkey vs USA
World Cup · Friday, June 26, 2026
2:00 AM UTC
Kickoff in 4 days
grok shows calibration differences on Team narrative override
Relevant dimension: Team narrative override
MODEL CONSENSUS
All Six Predictions
The Edge ★
Fingerprint-weighted ensemble
Model Weights
Naive Average
Equal-weight baseline
INDIVIDUAL MODELS
Gemini 3.1 Pro
The Generalist
GPT-5.4
The Market Baseline
Grok 3Most divergent
The Contrarian
Claude Sonnet 4.6
The Analyst
Why They Differ
Tracks whether predictions reflect absorbed historical narrative rather than current form data.
The Edge ensemble uses this fingerprint information to adjust model weights. After the match, we'll validate whether the fingerprint correctly predicted which model would be most accurate.
Predicted scoreline
1-2Goal expectancy 2.87 per match from betting-market totals; split fitted to the calibrated probabilities shown above with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Turkey listed first.
Ensemble Logic
Standard Context
No special conditions detected
Weights:
Grok 25% · GPT 25% · Claude 25% · Gemini 25%
Active: All PCM dimensions equally weighted
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